- Premier League UCL Race Intensifies as League resumes in April
After a two-week international break, the EPL resumes in April, and there is still so much to play for. Premier League UCL race intensifies in the final stretch of the league campaign, and things look interesting in the top half of the table.
Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth will battle for just three UCL spots (Arsenal and Liverpool look all but sure of a place in the UCL next season), and it promises to be exciting until the last day. Statistically, we have analyzed each team’s chances of securing a UCL spot, considering recent form and the difficulty of upcoming matches.
Manchester United (5%)
Manchester United have had a really poor domestic season, and many fans have already given up hope of finishing inside the top five.
Although they have enjoyed a good run of wins lately, clashes against Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, and Newcastle, along with a 12-point gap to cover, leave Ruben Amorim’s side with less than a 6% chance of qualifying for the Champions League by finishing in the top five.
However, United have another solid route to UCL football next season. They are in the quarterfinals of the Europa League, and if they win that competition, they will secure a spot in next season’s Champions League.
Nottingham Forest (75%)
The surprise package of the season! Nottingham Forest fans will be hoping their team can pull through the final stretch of matches to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. With matches against Manchester United, Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Everton, Forest have a solid 75% chance of securing UCL football next season.
Chelsea (65%)
Chelsea have struggled in the Premier League since the turn of the year, but the Blues still have a 65% chance of finishing inside the top five in the Premier League.
However, Chelsea face one of the toughest run of fixtures, including matches against Tottenham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, Newcastle United, and Liverpool.
Brighton (40%)
Brighton & Hove Albion have been in top form over the past month. The Seagulls have won four of their last five and have a solid 40% chance of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League.
Fulham (10%)
Fulham still have hopes of sneaking into the UCL places, as they are just three points off the top five. However, with tough matches against Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Brentford, and Manchester City, they have just 10% chance of qualifying for next season’s UCL.
Brentford (5%)
With three wins in their last five, Brentford have what it takes to challenge for a UCL spot. However, with upcoming matches against Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Brighton, and Manchester United, they only have a 5% chance of finishing in the top five.
Manchester City (80%)
Manchester City have been inconsistent this season, and the latest injury to Erling Haaland will cast even more doubt on their hopes of a top 5 finish. However, with a manageable fixture list on paper, City still have a strong 80% chance of making next season’s UCL.
Bournemouth (20%)
Bournemouth’s form has dipped recently, with zero wins in their last five matches, but they still have what it takes to make this season the club’s best ever. The Cherries are four points off the top five, but with a tough run of fixtures ahead, they have just a 20% chance of securing a UCL spot.
Aston Villa (30%)
Unai Emery and his Aston Villa side will need a remarkable run in their final nine matches of the season.
Villa are three points off the top five and still have to play Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Fulham, Bournemouth, and Tottenham, among others. The Villans have a 30% chance of qualifying for the UCL next season.
Newcastle United (68%)
The newly crowned Carabao Cup champions will now focus all their energy over the next eight weeks on qualifying for next year’s UEFA Champions League.
Newcastle have one game in hand, and a win would propel them into the top four. However, with fixtures against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton, Brentford, Aston Villa, and Manchester United, they have a shaky 68% chance of securing UCL football next season.
Although things will change weekly, we believe these stats represent each team’s chances of playing in the Champions League next season as of April 1, 2025.
